Ryan DeLongpre

Jun 3, 2020

3 min read

Why Joe Biden Can’t Win

I know I know: America is on fire, unemployment is at all time high, riots are everywhere and yet I am here to tell you that there are no chances Joe Biden will become POTUS.

Some disclosures:

  • I have bet and won on all US elections since 2008 (Obama, Obama, Trump)
  • I’m politically conservative and I will, most likely, vote for Trump come November.

The way I was able to predict the victories of Obama and Trump was not by studying the policies they proposed and gauging which one would be most favored by the American electorate, a mistake that all pundits did in 2016, in fact I didn’t even live in US until 2014. Elections, like most matters of life, are not won by those who have the best policies or the most accurate facts, or else Trump could have never won, but by those who are more capable at managing the emotions and evoking the deepest fantasies.

By using this simple heuristic even a squirrel could have forecast the presidencies of Obama and Trump.

This alone should be enough to predict a re-election of Trump but there’s even more “emotional evidence” for the impossibility of a Biden presidency.

It is not a secret that Liberals and Conservatives don’t agree on much nowadays but what it’s more interesting is why that is the case.

The temptation to believe that is always the other side that is under-informed or undereducated or even worse, straight up evil is strong but should always be dismissed. The truth is much simpler: liberals and conservative are biologically wired differently and no matter how much data or facts it’s brought to the table the vast majority of them will remain fixated on their position.

Broadly speaking Liberals are more creative, more open-minded, more interested in progress and less anchored to traditions and rigid rules.

This explains why for the past 50 years Liberals have preferred the same archetype of a candidate over and over again: The Young Outsider.

In reverse order

Barack Obama: a junior senator from Illinois, age 47

Bill Clinton: smalltime Governor from Arkansas, age 46

Jimmy Carter: “Despite being a dark-horse candidate who was little known outside of Georgia at the start of the campaign, Carter won the 1976 Democratic presidential nomination.” age 52

Lyndon B. Johnson: lost the primaries and only became POTUS because of the assassination of JFK, age 55

JFK age 43, the youngest president in the history of America.

Joe Biden is the antithesis to all of that. He’s the Old Insider: 77 years old (78 by inauguration day), he’s been in Congress for 40 years and he is as ingrained in DC powers as one can be.

Liberals voters will not connect emotionally with him.

For all the above reasons — as long as Biden is the opponent — Donald Trump will easily be re-elected.

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